Clarity Act fails Senate vote. Fed rate decision to be BTC's next big test.

• Clarity Act fails Senate procedural cloture vote 49-50; short of required 60 votes

• Tue, Sept 15th: Bitcoin fell 4%, cryptos and crypto-linked stocks also tumbled

• Crypto legislation now in the hands of SEC, CFTC; but agencies' rules may be changed by future administrations

• Path forward now runs through the November US midterms, incoming Congress makeup could shape industry outlook

• Today, cryptos could see more pain on a Fed rate hike + signals of more incoming US rate hikes

The Clarity Act is now effectively dead for this Congress.



On Tuesday, September 15th, the crypto bill failed a Senate procedural cloture vote 49–50.

That final tally fell well short of the 60 votes required to advance - with key Democratic negotiators voting "No", citing insufficient ethics guardrails around President Trump's crypto holdings.

READ MORE (published July 8th, 2026): Crypto earned President Trump US$ 1.4 billion in 2025!



RECAP: What is the Clarity Act?



The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R. 3633) is a proposed U.S. legislation that aims to:

1) draw a clear regulatory line between the CFTC and SEC, the two main US financial regulators, to decide which is in charge of regulating each type of cryptoasset.

2) set up a federal rulebook for the exchanges, brokers, and dealers that trade it:

• CFTC gains exclusive oversight of digital commodity spot markets, including major tokens like ETH and SOL.

• SEC keeps authority over issuance, investment contracts, and fraud, but cannot label tokens securities based only on initial distribution.

• The act creates a federal framework for digital-commodity exchanges and brokers and dealers, with CFTC-style custody, disclosure, and consumer protections.

In short, the Clarity Act would have given crypto investors greater certainty and clearer understanding about the industry.



How did markets react?

The outcome was hardly surprising: Polymarket odds for the CLARITY Act becoming law this year crashed to ~15% just before the vote, down from over 30% the prior day.

Yet, the bill's failure still triggered a selloff in cryptos and crypto-linked stocks on Tuesday, Sept 15th:

• Bitcoin: -4%, briefly dipping below $75k

• Ethereum: -6.4%, falling below $2.4k before recovering slightly

• Ripple: -11.6%, testing support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)

• Coinbase: -10.1%

• Circle: -11.4%

Trade Bitcoin perps now



What's Next for Crypto Legislation?



The path forward runs through the November US midterms.

Pro-crypto groups, such as super PAC Fairshake, are expected to deploy funds in targeted midterm races, with crypto lobbies vowing to make the bill's failure a campaign issue.

Reintroduction in the next legislative session is possible, but the timeline and political composition of the new Congress remain uncertain.

Still, this defeat now leaves U.S. digital asset regulatory jurisdiction unresolved.

Crypto's quest to make further inroads into mainstream finance is now in the hands of regulators, such as the SEC and CFTC.

However, any rules created by these agencies could be changed by future administrations - hardly the durable legislative foundation that the crypto industry desired.

RECAP: May 14th - Clarity Act advanced by Senate Banking Committee 



Fed hike may trigger more crypto declines today (Wed, Sept 16th)



Beyond the crypto industry, the biggest market-moving event of the week is due in just hours from now.

The US Federal Reserve is set to announce its rate decision at 6:00PM UTC time today - Wednesday, September 16th.

Today, the Fed is widely expected (94% odds) to trigger its first rate hike since July 2023 - anything else would be a shocker.

Also, pay attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference which is scheduled to start at 6:30 PM UTC today.

As things stand, markets currently predict a 77% chance that the Fed will hike 4 times (25-basis points per hike) over the next 12 months, through September 2027 - starting with its first hike of the cycle today.



POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

• Cryptos may see some relief if the Fed chooses to hold off on a rate hike today, while citing a cautious approach to raising its benchmark rates in the months ahead.

• Cryptos may tumble further if the Fed not only delivers a rate hike today, but signals a need to keep hiking rates in the months ahead to cool down US inflation



READ MORE (published Monday, Sept 14th): "3 Assets to Watch", featuring Bybit's newly-launched FX perpetuals, along with forecasted % reactions to the Fed rate decision for 11 other major assets, including BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL.





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.