Here's how Gold, FX, BTC, even Indices might react to today's US jobs report

Markets breathe sigh of relief, for now, on robust Nvidia earnings outlook



Risk assets are soaring after Nvidia's stronger-than-expected revenue forecast produced a major positive surprise for markets that had been wary of AI bubble risks.

• NVIDIA stocks on Bybit's platforms surged to fulfill the $197.40 upside target highlighted in our pre-earnings "Daily Market Update" livestream (2:00PM GMT Wed, Nov 19). At the time of writing, the stock has even posted an intraday high of $198.48.



• Bybit's SP500 and NAS100 Indices have broken above their respective 50-day simple moving averages (SMA).

• Safe haven Gold is easing slightly lower, still trapped between its 9-day and 21-day SMAs, as risk-on sentiment attempts a comeback.

Trade NVIDIA, SP500, NAS100, Gold, and more on Bybit MT5 using this link.

In the crypto space:

• Bitcoin briefly breached the psychological $93,000 level, but has pared some of its gains since.

• The broader CoinDesk 20 index is up 4.5%, as the risk-on sentiment helps lift major cryptocurrencies.

Even so, cryptos have yet to shake off "extreme fear" conditions, and could use all the help it can get.



Delayed September Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report due 1:30 PM GMT Thursday, Nov 20.



Market attention will swiftly move on to today's incoming NFP report.

Note that the monthly US jobs report is typically released on the first Friday of every month. The September NFP report was initially due to be released on October 3rd.

However, given that the longest government shutdown in US history has now ended, the delayed Sept NFP data will be released today instead (Thur, Nov 20).

Here's what economists predict for the key September data:

• 51,000 new jobs added, more than double that of August's 22k headline NFP figure

• 4.3% unemployment rate, same as August's rate

Potential market reactions to incoming Sept NFP report



A weaker-than-expected US jobs market may prompt the Fed to lower US interest rates at its December FOMC meeting.

Such a narrative may push:

• Gold higher past its 9-day SMA and the psychological $4100 line

• G10 currency pairs (e.g. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc.) higher as the US dollar weakens at the thought of US interest rates moving even lower.



A stronger-than-expected US jobs market may prompt the Fed to keep US interest rates on hold its December FOMC meeting.

Such a narrative may drag:

• Gold below its 21-day SMA and towards the psychological $4k line

• G10 currency pairs (e.g. EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD etc.) lower on a stronger USD at the thought of US interest rates staying unchanged for longer (rates not moving down as fast as expected).



It's a trickier task to try and anticipate how risk assets might interpret the incoming US jobs report.

Although the likes of Bitcoin and US stock indices typically take comfort from the notion of US interest rates moving lower (i.e. the Fed stepping in to support US hiring), these major risk assets may yet tumble on fears over a worsening labour market.

Note that Fed funds futures now merely price in a 27% chance of a December Fed rate cut, in stark contrast to the near-100% odds accorded a month ago.

Safe to say, shifting market bets around the Fed's rate decision next month are bound to force further repricing across major asset classes today, and in the lead up to that Dec 9-10 FOMC meeting.

In short, the incoming September US jobs report may well trigger big moves today across Bitcoin, SP500, NAS100, Gold, etc.



Get an in-depth, all-you-need-to-know preview of the September US jobs report a.k.a. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) @ 1:00 PM GMT today (Thur, Nov 20) in Bybit Learn's "Daily Market Update" livestream - on YouTube and X - with Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan.