3 Assets to Watch (July 20-24): EURGBP+, NAS100 index, and ETH
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The Iran war continues to cast a dark cloud over global markets.
Brent oil broke above $90/bbl for the first time in over a month, also trading back above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - a widely followed technical indicator - for the first time since mid-May.
READ MORE (published July 15th): Oil respects July 13th upside target
As traders and investors keep watch over the ongoing Middle East conflict, even while casting a wary eye on the AI trade unwind, there are more scheduled macro events that could trigger potential trading opportunities.
Key Events This Week:
Mon, July 20: Andy Burnham to be sworn in as UK Prime Minister
Tue, July 21: UK May unemployment; June jobless claims
Wed, July 22: UK June inflation (CPI: consumer price index)
Thur, July 23: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision
Thur, July 23: Intel earnings
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3 Assets to Watch (July 20-24)
1) NAS100 to revisit which popular technical indicator?
Simple moving averages (SMA) are a widely used technical indicator by traders.
SMAs can often act as a trading signal, such as:
Support: a "floor" to prevent prices from falling much lower
Resistance: a "ceiling" to prevent prices from rising much higher
Entry: when to place an order
Exit: when to close a position
Currently, the NAS100 is trading between its 50-day and 100-day SMAs.
This week, some Big Tech companies - namely Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel - are set to unveil their respective quarterly earnings.
These 3 companies have a combined market cap of about US$ 6.1 trillion - that's a big chunk of the Nasdaq 100 index's market cap of US$ 39.4 trillion (as of US market close on Friday, July 17th).
The market's reactions, either positive or negative, to earnings out of Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel this week could rock the broader NAS100 index too.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: NAS100 could meet its 50-day SMA for resistance should the AI trade rebound (or the selloff at least halted), while Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel collectively offer rosier earnings outlooks.
DOWNSIDE: NAS100 could test its 100-day SMA for support should the AI selloff persist, while Alphabet, Tesla, and Intel earnings collectively fail to shore up sentiment around AI/tech stocks.
READ MORE: Trade the index - one of 3 basic strategies traders can use during US earnings season.
2) EURGBP+ to sink to a fresh 1-year low?
On the British Pound (GBP) side of the EURGBP+ equation, the first half of the week will see traders focusing on:
any policy announcements by the UK's newest Prime Minister, Andy Burnham
Burnham's pick for Chancellor of the Exchequer
key UK economic data releases.
The Euro (EUR) side of the EURGBP+ equation is dominated by the European Central Bank's (ECB) rate decision due Thursday, July 22nd.
Bear in mind that the ECB already hiked rates in June, wary about rising energy prices stemming from the Iran war.
NOTE: The primary tool used by many major central banks to subdued inflation is to raise interest rates.
Markets roundly expect no ECB rate change this week, but expect a 95% chance for another hike in September, and an 81% chance for a second rate hike between now and end-2026.
Last week, EURGBP+ sunk to its lowest levels in a year, though attempts to rebound in the latter half of last week have been resisted around its 9-day SMA.
This week, Bloomberg's FX model forecasts an 82% chance that EURGBP will trade between 0.8437 - 0.8560.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: EURGBP+ may move towards the 0.8560 upside target if it can break above its 9-day SMA, with its 21-day SMA potentially offering resistance. From a fundamental perspective, EURGBP+ upside may require that the ECB signals that a September hike is likely. Meanwhile, a weaker GBP should also send EURGBP+ higher should markets be disappointed by UK PM Burnham's policies, pick for Chancellor, or by lacklustre UK economic data.
DOWNSIDE: EURGBP+ may hit a new 1-year low around the 0.8437 downside target if the ECB pushes back on market expectations for 2 more rate hikes by end-2026. Meanwhile, EURGBP+ may hit a new low (stronger GBP) since June 2025 if markets are cheered by UK PM Burnham's "pro-business" policies and pick for Chancellor, and/or better-than-expected UK economic data.
NOTE: EURGBP+ tends to move HIGHER on a stronger Euro and/or weaker British Pound. EURGBP+ tends to move LOWER on a weaker euro and/or a stronger British Pound.
3) Return of $2k ETH?
Among the 5 biggest cryptos (excluding stablecoins), Ethereum has been the biggest gainer so far in July 2026:
(ranked by market cap; % figures below show month-to-date performance at time of writing)
ETH is attempting a comeback as investors shift their attentions towards rising adoption rates for stablecoin and tokenization.
US-listed Ethereum ETFs have attracted about US$227 million in net inflows so far this month, while month-to-date net inflows into US-listed Bitcoin ETFs stand at around $70.2 million.
From a technical perspective, ETH has been supported by the rising lower trendline that began since the intraday low on June 26th, even as the psychological $1500 price has supported ETH since June.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: Should this rotation away from BTC and undervalued tokens persist, then ETH may reclaim the $2k for the first time since early June, also potentially testing resistance around its 100-day SMA which currently lies around that psychological $2k mark.
DOWNSIDE: Should this month-to-date upward momentum lose steam and breaks below that rising lower trendline support, ETH may return to sub-$1800 levels and potentially test support around its 50-day SMA.
DISCLAIMER:
This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.