3 Assets to Watch (July 27-31): NAS100, GBPUSD, and BTC
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Get ready for what's set to be a "wild Wednesday" (and beyond)!
The week is kicking off on a slight risk-on note, as the US and Iran paused military strikes.
At the time of writing:
Brent oil (UKOUSD): -6%, tumbling back below $90/bbl for the time being
Gold (XAUUSD+): +1.1%, creating a bigger gap above the psychologically-important $4k price level
NAS100 index: +1.4%, erasing all of its declines from last Fri, July 24th
ETH: +2.7%, moving to less than 1% away from the $2k upside target we highlighted last Monday (July 20th).
RECAP: 3 Assets to Watch (July 20-24)
Still, the ongoing Middle East conflict warrants constant vigilance, as always.
Even so, this week is jam-packed with tier-1, market-moving events that could trigger bigger-than-usual trading opportunities across stocks, FX, and even cryptos!
Key Events This Week: Wild Wednesday
From the earnings announcements by some of the biggest tech companies from the US to South Korea, to the most influential central banks in the world, here's what to look out for in this final week of July 2026:
Wed, July 29: Fed rate decision + Chair Warsh's press conference
Thur, July 30: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision
Thur, July 30: US PCE (personal consumption expenditures - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation)
Fri, July 31: Eurozone July CPI
Global stocks sensitive to AI bigwigs' earnings
To put these Big Tech stocks into proper context, here's their respective market caps as of the US market close last Friday (July 24th):
Apple: US$ 4.89 trillion
Microsoft: US$ 2.8 trillion
Amazon: US$ 2.5 trillion
Meta: US$ 1.5 trillion
Let's call this cluster of 4 tech behemoths as "Big M.A.M.A.".
That's almost US$ 11.7 trillion in stocks reporting within a span of 24-hours (ish) of each other!
And that's just in the US 🇺🇸.
Over in South Korea 🇰🇷, we'll get earnings also this week out of AI high-flyers - Samsung and SK Hynix - each of these stocks have already more than doubled so far in 2026:
We will preview each of these stock earnings in tomorrow's (Tue, July 28th) "Market Pulse" report.
READ MORE: Forecasted post-earnings, stock price reactions for each of these big-name tech stocks
But for today's usual Monday report, here are 3 assets to watch this week.
And we don't normally do this, but today's report also features some repeats from last week, given their obvious links to this week's scheduled events.
READ MORE (published Fri, July 25th): Here's what you missed last week - Tesla, Alphabet, Intel respected our post-earnings targets!
3 Assets to Watch (July 27-31)
1) NAS100 - still trapped in downtrend
Last week, we cited the NAS100's 50-day and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs) as potential support and resistance, acting also as upside and downside targets.
With some US$ 11.7 trillion worth of its members reporting earnings mid-week, which is about 30% of the Nasdaq 100's market cap of US$ 38.78 trillion (though noting the NAS100 uses a modified market cap based for weightings of its index constituents) ...
This tech-heavy stock index is bound to reach to these big Tech earnings as well.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: NAS100 may punch up to its 50-day SMA if "Big M.A.M.A." (Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Amazon) can restore fervour for AI stocks, and vanquish AI spending fears. Stock indexes may also be lifted by risk-on sentiment should the Middle East conflict further de-escalate.
DOWNSIDE: NAS100 may sink to a fresh 2-month low and hit its 100-day SMA if "Big M.A.M.A." fails to vanquish AI spending fears, with investors already worried that all this massive capex may not eventually pay off. Stock indexes may also be dragged down should the Middle East conflict re-escalate.
2) GBPUSD+ sensitive to which central bank's likelier to hike rates next: Fed or BoE
This major FX pair has largely been confined to a sideways range for the past 15 months (since April 2025).
This week, Bloomberg's FX model forecasts a 75.6% chance that GBPUSD will trade between 1.3200 - 1.3467.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: GBPUSD may rise (stronger GBP vs. weaker USD) towards the 1.3467 upside target if:
the Bank of England (BoE) says its next rate hike may arrive in September
the Fed (Federal Reserve) surprises markets by walking back expectations for its own rate hike, if the incoming economic data, such as this week's PCE release, allows US policymakers to do so.
DOWNSIDE: GBPUSD may sink (weaker GBP vs. stronger USD) towards the 1.3200 psychological level if:
the Bank of England says its next rate hike may arrive in September
the Fed presses home its intentions to quell US inflation by raising interest rates.
this week's US economic data point to resilient spending and a spike in US inflation (PCE) and inflation expectations, which may force the Fed to hike rates before end-2026.
Market forecasts for next US/UK rate hike
Here are the market's current expectations for the next rate adjustments by the Fed and BoE respectively:
Fed: September rate hike fully expected; 68% (2-in-3) chance of another Fed rate hike by end-2026
BoE: 55% chance of a September UK rate hike; 53% chance of another BoE rate hike by end-2026
NOTES:
A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's interest rates going up.
For many central banks in developed economies, their main tool for subduing inflation is to raise interest rates.
3) BTC to falter back to $61.5k? Or hit 100-day SMA resistance?
The world's biggest and oldest crypto has been steadily climbing so far this month, rising about 11% month-to-date.
This week, the US Senate may vote on passing the Clarity Act, subject to more political negotiations between Republicans and Democrats.
Although the latest iteration of the bill appears to have a slim chance of passing Congress by year-end, crypto industry watchers will be monitoring if this digital assets bill can break its months-long impasse before the August 7th congressional recess.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: Bitcoin may soar towards its 100-day SMA if the Senate can break the impasse and approve the Clarity Act before August 7th.
DOWNSIDE: Bitcoin's 21-day SMA, which has provided critical support in recent weeks, may give way and allow Bitcoin to sink towards $61.5k once more, if the political impasse surrounding the Clarity Act persists into the congressional recess, disappointing the crypto industry.
DISCLAIMER:
This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.