3 Assets to Watch (Sept 28 - Oct 2): Gold, AUDUSD+, and Tesla

• Key events this week: US jobs report, US PCE data, Fed speakers, Middle East tensions, Australia rate decision (RBA), Tesla's Roadster launch

• UPDATE: Tesla's Roadster event postponed till October 15th.

• Gold hits 7-week low; Bloomberg model: 73% chance of trading between $4051 - $4269 this week

• Bloomberg model: 75% chance AUDUSD+ trades between 0.694 - 0.710 this week. Watch RBA signals

• Tesla to launch new Roadster (Oct 1st) and announce quarterly deliveries (Oct 2?); potential 100-day SMA resistance (upside target) and 50-day SMA support (downside target)



Gold has kicked off this week by sliding to a 7-week low.



The latest flare-up in Middle East tensions, with President Trump rejecting Iran's 7-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, has sent:

• Oil prices (Brent and WTI) rising over 2%

• Bitcoin falling 1.8% towards the $82k level

• US stock futures lower; NAS100 down 0.9%



These latest declines also meant that ...

Gold has finally hit our $4168.50 downside target set since September 14th, after enduring a mostly "lackluster" September.

READ MORE:

• published Sept 14th: Gold may falter on "hawkish" Fed

• published Sept 25th: Here's why Gold has been moving sideways so far in September 2026.



And gold could see more big price moves this week!

Key event this week



• Sept 28 - Oct 2: Fed speak - about 20 different Fed officials are set to make public speeches. What they each say about the potential rate hikes in the months ahead could rock global markets, including gold.

• Wednesday, Sept 30: August US PCE - the Fed's preferred measure of inflation

• Friday, Oct 2: August US jobs report - a must-watch event for traders and investors worldwide



3 Assets to Watch this week



As we do every Monday, we distill the week's major events into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity:

1) $4k Gold on "hawkish" Fed speakers and stronger US jobs, PCE data?



Recall that:

• Gold tends to move lower at the thought of US interest rates moving higher.

• When rates rise, bond yields also go up - making bonds more attractive vs. gold (which pays no interest), so gold falls.

• Rising oil prices and sticky inflation keep pressure on the Federal Reserve to hike again (the US central bank's main weapon against too-hot inflation is to raise interest rates).

• Markets now predict a 70% chance that the Fed will hike again on October 28th.

Trade Gold perps now

According to Bloomberg's model, there's a 73% chance that gold trades between $4051 - $4269 this week.

Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: Gold could recover to $4269 and test resistance around its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) if the Fed speakers strike a more balanced tone, perhaps even hinting at a pause, while weaker-than-expected US jobs report and softer PCE data do not spur the Fed into more rate hikes.

• DOWNSIDE: Gold could test support around the psychologically-important $4k level if the Fed speakers pave the way for an October rate hike, while the US jobs report and PCE data both come in higher-than-expected respectively.





2) AUDUSD+ to hit 2-month low?



The Australian Dollar is still the 2nd-best performing G10 currency vs. the US Dollar so far in 2026 (AUDUSD gained 5.2% year-to-date).

^{NOTE: G10 FX's best ytd performer = Norwegian Krone (NOK) up 6% vs. USD so far in 2026}

However, more recently, AUDUSD+ fell to an 8-week low (lowest since early August), weighed down by advancing US Treasury yields and US dollar.

NOTE:

• AUDUSD+ prices go up when the Australian Dollar strengthens vs. USD / US dollar weakens against AUD

• AUDUSD+ prices go down when the Australian Dollar weakens vs. USD / US dollar strengthens against AUD

Trade AUDUSD+ now

PREVIEW: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision



At 4:30AM UTC time on Tue, Sept 29th, markets widely expect the RBA to raise its cash rate from 4.35% to 4.6% - its highest levels since Nov 2011.

Anything else will be a shocker.

More importantly, it's what the RBA signals about future rate changes that could move markets.

As things stand, markets predict a 74% chance that the RBA will hike 3 more times (including this week's expected hike) over the next 12 months - by Sept 2027.

Remember: a currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its economy's interest rates moving higher than its peers.

On the USD-side of the AUDUSD+ equation, the Fed speakers, US jobs report, and PCE data would have great influence over how the US dollar performs this week.

And of course, how oil reacts to the ever-fluid Middle East geopolitical situation will also impact global markets.

Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: AUDUSD+ could test resistance around the 0.710 psychological level and its 50-day SMA if the RBA signals its ready to keep hiking rates beyond this week, while on the USD side - the Fed speakers, PCE data, and US jobs report allow the Fed to back away from more US rate hikes.

• DOWNSIDE: AUDUSD+ could sink to its lowest levels since late July and hit the 0.6940 level if the RBA signals a pause after this week's hike, while on the USD side - the Fed speakers, PCE data, and US jobs report all warrant another US rate hike in October and beyond.





3) Tesla's Q3 deliveries to help TSLA recover?

UPDATE: Tesla was initially slated to unveil its new Roadster on Oct 1st. The event has since been postponed to Oct 15th.

In the early days of October, likely prior to the weekend, the world's most valuable automaker is set to soon unveil how many vehicles it produced and shipped last quarter.

According to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, Tesla is expected to announce it delivered 463,000 vehicles in Q3.

Tesla's EV outlook remains lackluster with headwinds stemming from persistent China weakness, higher interest rates, along with higher costs and operating expenses.

Hence, analysts project a mere 4.9% in potential upside left over the next 12 months for Tesla stocks.

It remains to be seen whether the new Roadster can also help TSLA to fly, given that the stock has faced strong technical resistance around its 100-day SMA on 2 separate occasions already in September 2026.

Trade Tesla perps now

Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: TSLA could break above its 100-day SMA and move towards the psychological $400 level if the Roadster stokes Tesla-SpaceX merger mania, while the company also announces better-than-expected Q3 deliveries and production figures.

• DOWNSIDE: TSLA could test support at its 50-day SMA if the Roadster's reveal and Q3 deliveries/production underwhelms.

Of course, broader risk sentiment for US stocks - as informed by the Fed policy outlook and/or the Middle East conflict - could greatly influence Tesla's stock price performance as well this week.





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