Trump says US-Iran ceasefire “over”. What’s next for BTC, stocks, gold, and oil?



President Trump says the US ceasefire with Iran is “over”.



And already, major assets are reacting fast:

• Brent crude oil is soaring +6.4%, rising to a 2-week high to test its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for resistance

• Bitcoin: -2.5%, now testing the $62k psychological level for support

• SP500: -1%, now testing 50-day SMA for support

• NAS100: -1.5%, sinking below 29k to hit a 1-month low

• Gold (XAUUSD+): -1.3%, falling back towards the $4k psychological level

POTUS's comments come after ships in the Strait of Hormuz were attacked, which then triggered US strikes against Iran. Neighbouring Bahrain and Kuwait also intercepted attacks today.

Markets had been lulled into this sense of complacency, thinking that the ceasefire would be a durable off-ramp for these geopolitical tensions.

Even the DJ30 index, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average, hit a new intraday record high just yesterday (Tue, July 7), before now tumbling over 1% at the time of writing.



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What’s next for markets?



This latest escalation is a stern reminder to markets that geopolitical risks remain on the table, even as the Fed’s policy outlook remains “the” dominant theme for markets for the 2nd half of 2026.



• Watch oil prices in the immediate term

Should oil rebound back meaningfully higher, that could re-awaken inflation fears, which should ramp up market bets for Fed rate hikes this year.

And major financial assets, including currencies, stocks, even cryptos, may revert to their sensitivity to oil prices once more (see "Potential Scenarios" below).



• US midterm elections should limit escalation risks

Still, beyond this latest flare-up and the market’s knee-jerk reactions today, it remains unlikely at this juncture that the Middle East will witness an all-out, re-escalation in the military conflict.

President Trump may not be inclined to ramp up the US military campaign against Iran at risk of prolonging the war closer to the US midterm elections.

Also, markets note that POTUS has often shown a tendency to issue threats, with little follow through.

But none of this means that markets can stay complacent.



• Markets likely to move past latest flare-up, soon

Recall that, even during the throes of the Iran war:

1. US stock indexes kept posting fresh record highs

2. Bitcoin and other major cryptos held steady

3. Oil prices peaked in end-April, only to unwind all of its post-war gains over the past couple of months on persistent hopes of a ceasefire.



This confirms what we published on March 1st – at the start of the Iran war:

• Geopolitical risk premiums are often swiftly faded out, but prolonged conflict may spell more volatility

• Geopolitical risk premiums often temporary … history has shown that geopolitical conflicts tend to have only a shortened impact on financial markets.

And the price action over the past 4 months confirms our early assumptions held since 4 months ago.





POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

• If the military conflict is re-ignited and oil prices soar back closer to $100/bbl:



• If this latest flare up proves fleeting and US-Iran peace talks can resume:





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.