How has Bitcoin fared over past US-Iran conflicts?



Geopolitical tensions + US-China trade tensions = risk off markets.

Markets are paring back hopes for a de-escalation in the ongoing Middle East conflict, while China's just-launched investigations into US trade practices add to the downcast sentiment across major financial assets:

• Brent Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD): +2.5%, trading around $108/bbl

• Gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+): +0.9%, still keeping within the $4350 - $4600 range for most of this week

• SP500: -0.4%, extending declines after yesterday (Thursday, March 26) posting its lowest closing price since September

• EURUSD+: -0.1%, world's most-traded FX pair on course for a 4-day losing streak

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): -3.3%, trading around lowest levels since March 9th, though still within 7-week sideways range.

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Today (Friday, March 27), Bitcoin is also set to witness its largest options expiry so far in 2026, worth some US$ 14 billion.

Traders will be mulling wether this removal of such a large chunk of open interest will expose Bitcoin prices to greater volatility, driven by news headlines surrounding the Iran war.

As the war reaches its 1-month mark, it’s perhaps timely to revisit historical precedence that may offer some near-term optimism for Bitcoin bulls (those hoping prices will move higher).



Iran War: Past precedence points to future gains?



The chart below compares BTC’s spot price 30 days before and 100 days after periods when the US undertook major hostile measures against Iran. 

Key events, for example, include:

• October 2023: US military’s airstrikes on facilities in Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) 

• February 2024: US military’s airstrikes in Iraq and Syria against the IRGC 

• June 2025: "Operation Midnight Hammer” - most comparable to current war





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In all 3 cases, BTC's spot price traded higher 100 days after the attacks  began. 

BTC’s median return 100 days after the date that the escalations began was +26%. 

Despite such episodes in recent years, of course, it must be stated that the current Middle East conflict is unprecedented in many ways. 

What makes the current conflict unique is both its duration and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz – something never before implemented by Iran. 

So far, since the day prior to the first US-Israeli attacks against Iran, which prompted the latter to then retaliate across the region, BTC is up 5% at the time of writing. 

While that's below the +16% median these many days into past escalations, it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin can live up to its touted "safe haven" merits amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.



READ MORE: 

• published March 17th - Bitcoin hits 6-week high! Time to get pumped?

• published March 13th - Besides Oil, which assets are "winning" in this Middle East conflict?

• published March 4th - Middle East Watch: US dollar vs. Bitcoin - which is the ultimate safe haven?