Introduction to Bybit Prediction

Bybit Prediction is a feature within Bybit Alpha, powered by Polymarket, the world's leading prediction market platform. It allows you to trade on the outcomes of real-world events directly from your Bybit account using USDC, without requiring a separate wallet or any on-chain setup.

What Is a Prediction Market?

A prediction market allows you to trade on the outcomes of real-world events by taking either a YES or NO position. Each share is priced between 0 USDC and 1 USDC, reflecting the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. For example, if YES shares are trading at 0.70 USDC, the market is implying a 70% probability that the event will occur.

As users buy and sell shares, prices fluctuate based on supply and demand, creating a market-based estimate of the likelihood of an outcome. When the event concludes and the market is resolved:

1. Winning shares pay out 1 USDC per share.
2. Losing shares settle at 0 USDC and become worthless.

Example

Suppose you buy 1,000 YES shares for "Argentina to win the 2026 Football Finals" at 0.30 USDC per share, for a total cost of 300 USDC. If Argentina wins, each YES share will settle at 1 USDC.

1. Total payout: 1 USDC × 1,000 = 1,000 USDC
2. Profit per share: 1.00 − 0.30 = 0.70 USDC
3. Total profit: 0.70 USDC × 1,000 = 700 USDC

In this example, a 300 USDC investment results in a total payout of 1,000 USDC and a profit of 700 USDC.

Benefits of Bybit Prediction

Bybit Alpha acts as your on-chain intermediary, enabling you to access and trade prediction markets using USDC directly from your Unified Trading Account (UTA). All on-chain interactions are handled by Bybit Alpha on your behalf.

Key benefits include:

1. No crypto wallet required: Participate in prediction markets directly from your Bybit account.
2. Fully USDC-denominated: All trades, settlements, and payouts are conducted in USDC.

Available Products

At launch, Bybit Prediction focuses on the Sport Events and supports the following market types:

1. Match Winner: Predict which team will win a specific match.
2. Tournament Winner: Predict which team will win the overall tournament.
3. Group Winner: Predict which team will finish first in its group.
4. Qualify: Predict whether a team will advance to the next round.
5. Over/Under: Predict total goals or other statistical outcomes.

Live matches are displayed in a dedicated tab. Additional event categories, including crypto and other sports markets, will be added over time.

How It Works

1. Browse events: Go to Bybit Alpha and open the Prediction section. Browse available events by category and select the event you wish to trade.
2. Choose your position: Select YES or NO based on your view of the event. Review the current ask and bid prices, enter your investment amount in USDC, and confirm your estimated entry price and maximum payout.
3. Place your order: All orders are executed as market orders. The minimum order size is 5 USDC. To help protect you from unfavorable fills, orders with an estimated entry price that exceeds the current market price by more than 5% will be automatically rejected.
4. Hold and monitor: Track your open positions, including the direction (YES/NO), shares held, average entry price, current mark price, unrealized P&L, and maximum payout.
5. Receive your payout: Once an event is resolved, winning positions are automatically settled, and the corresponding USDC payout is credited to your account. Losing positions settle at 0 USDC.

Payouts are typically credited within 24 hours after a market is resolved. However, crediting may be delayed due to disputes, resettlements, scheduled or unscheduled maintenance, or additional compliance checks.

Key Parameters

Trading Risks and Important Notes

Prediction markets are highly volatile, event-driven products. Market prices may change rapidly in response to breaking news, match developments, or shifts in market sentiment.

All prediction market orders are submitted as market orders. As a result, the final execution price may differ from the displayed price depending on market liquidity and volatility. Orders that exceed the platform's slippage protection threshold may be automatically rejected.

Prediction market outcomes are binary in nature. If the event outcome does not match your selected position, your position will settle at 0 USDC.

Please note that trading may be temporarily suspended, or new positions may be restricted, as an event approaches resolution or a match start time.

Key risks include:

1. Total loss risk: If your prediction is incorrect, you may lose the entire amount invested in the position.
2. Market volatility risk: Share prices may fluctuate significantly in response to real-world events, news, and changes in market sentiment. If market prices move against your position before settlement, you may incur a loss if you choose to exit early.
3. Liquidity risk: The ability to open or close a position depends on available liquidity in Polymarket's order book. In less liquid markets, you may experience higher slippage, unfavorable execution prices, or be unable to close your position before settlement.
4. Regulatory risk: The legal and regulatory treatment of prediction markets varies across jurisdictions and may change at short notice. Depending on the jurisdiction, prediction markets may be classified as gambling, betting, derivatives, securities, or other types of event-based contracts. Users are solely responsible for ensuring that their participation in Bybit Prediction complies with all applicable laws and regulations in their jurisdiction. Bybit may suspend, restrict, or discontinue access to Bybit Prediction at any time where required by applicable law or regulation, or where Bybit otherwise considers it appropriate.
5. Counterparty and platform risk: Bybit Prediction relies on Polymarket's infrastructure, smart contracts, oracle systems, and resolution mechanisms. Service disruptions, operational failures, smart contract vulnerabilities, or insolvency affecting Polymarket or its service providers may impact market availability, share value, settlement, or payouts.
6. Resolution and oracle risk: Market outcomes are determined using external sources of truth and Polymarket's resolution process. These sources may be unavailable, delayed, inaccurate, ambiguous, or subject to differing interpretations. In rare cases, a market outcome may be revised after initial resolution.
7. Void and cancellation risk: Markets may be voided, canceled, resettled, or otherwise adjusted by Bybit and/or Polymarket in certain circumstances, including where resolution sources are unavailable or ambiguous, where a market was created in error, where manipulation or abuse is suspected, or where required by applicable law. Trading fees may not be refunded in such cases.
8. Settlement and payout delay risk: Settlement proceeds may be delayed due to operational issues, market disputes, resettlements, scheduled or unscheduled maintenance, or additional compliance checks.
9. Technology and cybersecurity risk: Bybit Prediction relies on internet connectivity, blockchain networks, the Bybit platform, and third-party infrastructure. Technical failures, cyberattacks, network congestion, smart contract vulnerabilities, or platform outages may result in delays, losses, or inability to access or manage your positions.
10. Access and compliance risk: Bybit may suspend, restrict, or terminate your access to Bybit Prediction at any time for compliance, sanctions, AML, identity verification, regulatory, or risk management reasons, or where required by applicable law or a court order.
11. Tax risk: Users are solely responsible for any tax obligations arising from their participation in Bybit Prediction, including any payouts received. Bybit does not provide tax advice.

Prediction markets are speculative products and may not be suitable for all users. Please trade responsibly and only use funds you can afford to lose. Before placing a trade, carefully review the market rules and resolution criteria, and conduct your own research.