Bitcoin hasn't done this since October!

Talk about raring to go in the new year: Bitcoin has climbed as much as 8% so far in 2026, now trading around its highest levels since December 10th.

Traders would also have noticed that BTC is now trading above its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) - a widely followed technical indicator - for the first time since late-October 2025.

Note how the 50-day SMA has previously acted as a "resistance zone" - preventing BTC prices from marching much higher above it.





Hence, the current price action is significant, given how much BTC has relatively punched above its 50-day SMA. 











Bitcoin in 2026: It's Different This Time? 

In yesterday's livestream (Monday, Jan 5), as we launched the Bybit X Block Scholes 2026 Crypto Outlook report, we highlighted some key drivers that could fundamentally alter the 4-year cycle narrative surrounding Bitcoin. 

Those factors include: 

• Fed rate cuts: markets now predict a 1-in-3 chance that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates 3 times in 2026

• New Sources of Demand: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs)

Assessing evidence that the macro environment appears supportive for Bitcoin this year:



"We assign a higher chance of a new all-time high around $150,000 in 2026 ..." 









FUN FACT: Bitcoin rose 3.1% on Monday, Jan 5 - the day of our livestream and launch of our 2026 Crypto Outlook report - the biggest one-day gain in over a month (since Dec 2nd, 2025) 





Cryptos kick off 2026 in style

Beyond Bitcoin, altcoins are also enjoying a fine start to the new year so far: (% figures below represent year-to-date performance) 

• Bitcoin Cash: +7.4% - hit highest since April 2024! 

• Ethereum: +8.2% 

• Solana: +11% 

• Avalanche: +16.7% 

• Hedera Hashgraph: +21.4% 

• Stellar: +23.3% 

• Cardano: +25.2% 

• Dogecoin: +27.8% 

• Ripple: +28.1% 

• Shiba Inu: +33.8% 

Of course, it remains to be seen whether an "altseason" does crystalise meaningfully, though we still adhere to the notion that this year will be the year of "K-rypto", with altcoins likely seeing a K-shaped recovery in 2026. 

Still, the current gains for Bitcoin and altcoins so far in this still-nascent new year are showing greenshoots of optimism, despite the rising global geopolitical risks in the world that have also sent the likes of gold upwards.