3 Assets to Watch (August 3-7): Gold, DJ30 index, and SpaceX



• Key events this week: US earnings, and monthly US jobs report (NFP) due Fri, Aug 7th

• Gold may face either 50-day SMA resistance or sub-$4k prices post-NFP

• DJ30 index may post new record high if members' earnings & NFP stoke risk-on mood

• SpaceX may move >13% up/down on earnings, 911.5 million new shares unlock



Here's what to look out for in the first trading week of August:



• US earnings rolls along, with SpaceX due Tuesday, Aug 4th (more on that below)

• Why are US earnings important?

  Investors want to know whether they have fresh reasons to extend the recent rebound (July 30-31) in chips and AI stocks.

Should the tech and AI companies sound more positive about their future earnings, that could help AI stocks rebound further, as long as AI overspending fears are kept at bay.

^{READ MORE: Forecasts for Earnings reports you can't miss this week (Aug 3-7)}



• Fri, Aug 7: US monthly jobs report a.k.a. nonfarm payrolls (NFP)

This monthly US jobs report is also known as nonfarm payrolls (NFP), and is typically released on the first Friday of every month.

Why is the NFP important?

US consumers are the biggest driver of the world's biggest economy.

More people with more jobs = more money to spend and grow the US economy.

The strength (or weakness) of the US job market also informs the Federal Reserve - the most influential central bank in the world - whether to adjust interest rates.

• The Fed raises interest rates if the US jobs market is resilient enough to handle higher borrowing costs for households and businesses, and to help cool down inflation.

• The Fed lowers interest rates to support a weakening US jobs market (lower borrowing costs puts more money back into the hands of businesses so they can keep hiring + households also have more money in their pockets to spend)

Markets react based on their expectations for whether US interest rates will move higher or, in today's context, remain at the same rate for longer.

^{NOTE: Major assets such as stocks, gold, even cryptos tend to go DOWN at the thought of US interest rates going UP, and vice versa.}



3 Assets to Watch (Aug 3-7)



1) Gold - can it stay above $4k?



As we had shared in our latest weekly gold report (typically published Fridays), spot gold has been supported above the psychologically-important $4,000 price level, despite struggling to climb higher in recent weeks.

As Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, shared with Reuters last Friday (July 31):

"The metal remains supported above $4,000 by expectations that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may broaden the central bank's focus beyond its preferred inflation ⁠measures and rate increases."

In fewer words, markets are starting to doubt whether the Fed will actually hike interest rates.

^{REMINDER: Gold prices tend to go down at the thought of US interest rates going up, and vice versa.}

And as we also shared in our latest weekly Gold report (published Fri, July 31):

Bloomberg's model forecasts a 73% chance that Gold will trade between $3950 - $4200 through the first trading week of August 2026.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

• UPSIDE: Gold may rise to test resistance at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) if the US jobs market is surprisingly weak, which may prevent Fed rate hikes in the months ahead.

• DOWNSIDE: Gold may dip below $4k once more if the US jobs market is shown to be remarkably resilient, which may pave the way for Fed rate HIKES later this year.

Trade Gold now





2) DJ30 index to rebound towards record high?



At the time of writing, Bybit's DJ30 index, which tracks the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, is only about 1.2% away from its all-time intraday high of 53,410.2 posted on July 7th.

This week, nearly 20% of this index's members are set to report their respective earnings over the next 2 days:

^{READ MORE: Forecasts for Earnings reports you can't miss this week (Aug 3-7)}

Given their collective weightage on the index, the market's reactions to these companies' earnings could move the broader DJ30 as well.



POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

• UPSIDE: DJ30 index may post a fresh record high if its members' earnings prove better-than-expected, while the US jobs market demonstrates its resilience once more.

• DOWNSIDE: DJ30 may sink and re-test support around the 51,500 region yet again if its members' earnings disappoint markets, while the NFP data comes in weaker than expected.

Trade DJ30 now





3) SpaceX to resurface above $120, or sink below $100?



This week, SpaceX faces 2 major tests:

• Tuesday, Aug 4th: SpaceX's first public quarterly earnings report

Key earnings themes to watch:

• Is SpaceX turning away satellite operators on its Falcon 9 rocket after 2028? If so, this could be a signal greater expectations on its Starship project.

• Key numbers: Starlink subscribers, Colossus computer revenue, and plans to acquire wireless spectrum?

• SpaceX commercial payload delivery missions on course to start in 2nd half of 2026?



• Thursday, Aug 6th: about 911.5 million SpaceX shares to be unlocked

  This means more SpaceX shares are about to become publicly available for sale on the stock market.

Econs 101: When supply is greater than demand, prices tend to go down.

For comparison, currently, public markets only have access to about 5% (or 639 million) of SpaceX's total shares outstanding.

With the unlocking of those additional 911.5 million, that more than double that amount to about 12%!



As things stand, SpaceX shares have now tumbled about 20% below its June 12th IPO price, even falling as much as 52.3% from its all-time intraday high of $225.64 posted on June 16th.

POTENTIAL SCENARIOS

• UPSIDE: SpaceX may clamber back above $120, assuming it can conquer its 21-day SMA resistance, if the market-mania surrounding SpaceX's future is revived, while there's enough demand to absorb the unlocked stocks this week.

• DOWNSIDE: SpaceX may fall to around $94-$95 if SpaceX's earnings point to mammoth challenges over the near-term, while the market is overwhelmed by the unlocked shares.

  Trade SpaceX perps now

  

  

  

Win a Cybertruck this Stock Earnings Season





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.