3 Assets to Watch: March 23 - 27
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TACO strikes again?
NOTE: TACO = Trump Always Chickens Out (a tongue-in-cheek phrase used in the financial markets to describe how Trump would often soften or delay aggressive policy threats after initial tough talk).
The Middle East conflict, now in its 4th week, could see a "breather".
US President Donald Trump just posted on his Truth Social platform about postponing "ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD".
Trump's latest post prompted markets to dial down some of their fears surrounding an "inflation shock".
Already, markets are reacting:
Brent oil (UKOUSD) tumbled briefly back into sub-$100 prices
Gold (XAUUSD+) rebounded back above the crucial $4350 price zone
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT) rebounded to briefly breach the psychological $71,000 level
SP500 rebounded to briefly breach its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)
Trump's suggestion that the US-Iran "CONVERSATIONS ... WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK", along with the "FIVE DAY" postponement of strikes, makes this a pivotal week for major markets.
1) Brent Crude Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD)
As things stand, here's the current state of global oil markets:
Goldman Sachs - ongoing disruption is the "largest oil supply shock ever"
International Energy Agency (IEA) - effects from ongoing global oil supply disruption already same as:
... all combined.
The IEA also cites "severe damage" to over 40 energy assets across 9 countries in the Middle East.
Brent oil +44% since the first US-Israeli attacks against Iran; +73% so far in 2026.
POTENTIAL "FIVE DAY" SCENARIOS - UKOUSD:
UPSIDE: Brent Oil may climb back towards $120 if markets doubt President Trump's latest comments will actually translate into meaningful resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
DOWNSIDE: Brent Oil may fall back to $90-$92 region if US-Iran talks are indeed occurring, with positive developments leading to a meaningful resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
READ MORE (published Mar 12): Will Middle East crisis send Brent to new record?
2) Gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+)
Gold restores year-to-date gains; +0.9% so far in 2026 after today's rebound
Despite rebound, gold still technically in a "bear market" (when an asset's price has fallen 20% or more from its recent peak).
Gold's previous "bear market" was in the aftermath of Russia's invasion of Ukraine back in 2022, which also gave rise to a scare for energy markets.
READ MORE: 5 best risk management strategies for bear markets
Gold still down 17.7% since first US-Israeli attacks against Iran; dropped as much as 26.8% from highest-ever intraday price (posted Jan 29th, 2026).
Earlier today (Mon, March 23), gold found crucial support at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) - the first time it touched this widely-followed technical indicator since November 2023!
Gold's roller-coaster ride today comes after its largest weekly drop since 1983; -10.5% last week (ended March 20th).
Bloomberg's model forecasts a 71% chance of gold (XAUUSD+) trading between $4094.32 - $4608 between now and March 30th (one-week)
POTENTIAL "FIVE DAY" SCENARIOS - XAUUSD+
UPSIDE: Gold may climb back and re-test its 100-day SMA for resistance if US-Iran talks are indeed occurring + positive developments leading up to a meaningful resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz + oil prices pul back lower + alleviates concerns surrounding a "global inflation shock" + markets believe the Fed can resume US rate cuts in 2026.
DOWNSIDE: Gold may re-test its 200-day SMA for support if markets doubt President Trump's latest comments will actually translate into meaningful resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with markets still bracing for a "global inflation shock" that may even force the Federal Reserve to HIKE its benchmark rates.
Spot gold may even test the psychologically-important $4,000 number for crucial support if markets raise expectations for a Fed rate HIKE in 2026.
NOTE: Markets currently predict a 63% chance that the Fed rate hike may happen in October 2026.
READ MORE (published March 20th): Here's why Gold and Silver sank to 6-week low, despite Middle East conflict.
3) Bitcoin (Bybit: BTCUSDT)
Bitcoin briefly breached $71k, but critical resistance around $70k / 50-day simple moving average (SMA) still in play
Bitcoin +7.3% since the first US-Israeli attacks against Iran; -20% so far in 2026.
Bitcoin has outperformed multiple major assets since the onset of the Middle East conflict.
However, as Han Tan, Bybit Learn's Chief Market Analyst shared with the media:
“The prudent stance is to withhold from prematurely according the safe haven title to Bitcoin just yet ... Bitcoin is yet to prove its merits on that front.”
Conventional wisdom would dictate that prolonged Middle East tensions should drag down spot Bitcoin prices, or at least trigger further bouts of volatility over the near term.
What This Means for You:
Bitcoin's pullback from recent highs appears to be creating a classic risk/reward setup.
Short-term traders can play volatility, while long-term investors may view current levels as an entry point before potential institutional inflows accelerate.
READ MORE (published March 17th): Bitcoin hits 6-week high! Time to get pumped?
ICYMI ...
This time last week, we gave you a heads up on a week filled with major central bank rate decisions: 3 Major FX Pairs to Watch: March 16-20 (published Monday, March 16)
Since then, these 2 major FX pairs hit their respective upside targets last week:
