3 Assets to Watch: May 4-8



Risk assets are being rocked by renewed Middle East tensions at the onset of this trading week.



There were some notable moves earlier today, prior to Iran's claims that a US navy ship was hit by 2 missiles - which the US has since denied:

• Bitcoin hit a 3-month high, breaching $80k for the first time since end-January 2026, before giving up gains.

• The NAS100 index pushed further into record high territory, closing in on the 28k mark but then eased away

Cryptos had been drawing risk-on cues from equities, with the latter buoyed by refreshed appetite for AI and tech stocks after last week's earnings.

1) AUDUSD+ to hit 4-year high?

The Australian dollar is the 2nd biggest gainer against the US dollar so far this year among all G10 currencies (including the Euro, British Pound, Japanese Yen, etc.), with AUDUSD+ climbing 7.8% year-to-date.

^{The Norwegian Krone is the G10's best year-to-date performer, soaring 8.6% against USD so far in 2026.}

At the time of writing, AUDUSD+ is trading around its highest levels since June 2022!





Why has AUD been climbing?

• Higher oil prices: AUD tends to move in tandem with oil prices, given the Australian economy's exposure to commodities.

• Risk-on sentiment: Investors tend to buy "riskier" currencies like AUD when they have greater appetite to do so, especially following the US-Iran ceasefire was announced nearly a month ago.

• Growing expectations for rate hikes: A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's interest rates moving higher.





Key Events This Week:



• Tuesday, May 5 @ 4:30 AM UTC: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision

The RBA, Australia's central bank, is widely expected to raise rates for the 3rd consecutive meeting, following back-to-back rate hikes at its policy meetings in February and March.

Markets are pricing about 78% probability of a hike this week, with a near-50% chance of 2 more rate hikes by end-2026.



• Friday, May 8 @ 12:30 PM UTC: US April jobs report (nonfarm payrolls - NFP)

Markets are forecasting that 65k new jobs were added last month in the US economy, lower than March's 178k headline NFP number, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% last month.





Potential Scenarios



• UPSIDE: AUDUSD+ may reach 0.7300 for the first time since April 2022 if the RBA suggests that more rate hikes are coming in the months ahead, while USD softens on a weaker-than-expected jobs report (lower headline NFP and/or higher-than-expected jobless rate). Of course, AUD may get a further boost if traders and investors grow more comfortable taking on more risk, so long as Iran war risks remain in check.

• DOWNSIDE: AUDUSD+ may fall to its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) or even test the 0.7100 psychological level for support, if the RBA suggests that rate hikes are on pause after this week, while the US jobs report exceeds market expectations. AUDUSD+ may also be dragged lower by a rebound in the US dollar should risk aversion return to the markets, especially if there's a re-escalation in the Middle East conflict.

Trade AUDUSD+ Now



2) Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) to hit more ATHs?

With a market value of about US$ 588 billion, AMD is the 16th biggest company on the benchmark S&P 500 index (Bybit: SP500).

The share prices of this US chipmaker and AI darling has already risen 68.3% so far in 2026, posting fresh all-time highs last week.

Its year-to-date advance of 68.3% has far surpassed the "Magnificent 7" stocks, including GOOG (+23% ytd) and NVIDIA (+6.4% ytd).

^{ICYMI: GOOG was listed among our previous list of 3 Assets to Watch (April 27 - May 1) and smashed past our upside target last week to hit a new ATH. Did you miss out?}







Key Events This Week:



• Tuesday, May 5 - after US markets close: AMD is set to report its latest quarterly earnings

Options markets are pricing a 7.2% post-earnings, up/down move for AMD's share price.



Potential Scenarios



• UPSIDE: AMD could hit a new record high around $386.19 at Wednesday's US market open if this AI leader too champions a robust outlook for its data center CPUs, also reporting better-than-expected Q1 results.

• DOWNSIDE: AMD may falter back to the $334.31 region at Wednesday's US market open if this US chipmaker fails to live up to the market's lofty expectations, announcing a lower-than-expected earnings outlook and/or also reporting weaker-than-expected Q1 results.

Trade AMD Button



3) DOGEUSDT to erase year-to-date losses?

• Bitcoin: -9% (market cap: US$ 1.59 trillion)

• Ethereum: -20.7% (market cap: US$ 285 billion)

• Ripple: -23.2% (market cap: US$ 87 billion)

• BNB: -27.4% (market cap: US$ 84.7 billion)

• Solana: -32% (market cap: US$ 48.8 billion)

• TRON: +19.7% (market cap: US$ 32 billion)

• Dogecoin: -4.3% (market cap: US$ 17.3 billion)

While TRON (TRXUSDT) is the clear outperformer among the top cryptos - an asset we'd highlighted sinch March 30th - Doge has also fared better than its peers, with its relatively limited year-to-date declines.

Dogecoin bulls (those hoping prices will move higher) would also note that last week, it punched above its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since the 10/10 liquidation event.





POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:

• UPSIDE: Greater risk-on appetite across markets should help DOGEUSDT reclaim the 0.1200 level and erase all of its year-to-date declines.

• DOWNSIDE: A major dent to risk appetite may see DOGEUSDT sinking to find support around its 100-day and 21-day simple moving averages (SMAs).

Trade DOGE





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