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Markets still picking up the pieces after last week's brutal selloff across AI stocks after Democrats won US midterm elections
Tue, Nov 10th: US inflation expected to rise 0.3% in Oct vs. Sept 2026; no year-on-year CPI release
Gold and Bitcoin may rebound if US CPI comes in below market expectations (0.3% month-on-month)
Applied Materials stocks forecasted to move 8.6% up/down after earnings release (after US markets close Thur, Nov 12th)
Markets are trying to catch their breath after last week's torrid selloff.
Last week was a tale of two halves:
Wed, Nov 4th: Bitcoin and stocks surged after Democrats swept Congress.
Thur, Nov 5th: Risk assets (stocks, cryptos etc.) then gave back all those gains from the day prior.
At the time of writing:
Bitcoin is now back in the mid-$70k range - trading around its lowest levels since mid-August
The NAS100 index is now trading around its lowest levels since April, following the violent selloff across AI-linked stocks
Gold however still respected BOTH our upside and downside targets set since October 23rd.
XAUUSD+ chart as of Sunday, Nov 8th:
And there are more scheduled events left this month that could trigger more huge market moves.
READ MORE (published Nov 5th): 5 (more) Must-Watch Market Events in November 2026
Key events this week (Nov 9-13)
Mon, Nov 9th: US Congress returns - after Democrats secured resounding win in US Midterm elections
Tue, Nov 10th: US inflation report
Thur, Nov 12th: US earnings - Cisco, Applied Materials
Arguably, the US inflation report is set to dominate the scheduled global economic calendar.
Here are economists' predictions for the upcoming US inflation report, as widely measured by the consumer price index (CPI):
CPI month-on-month (Oct 2026 vs. Sept 2026): 0.3%
If so, 0.3% would be slower than September's 0.6% month-on-month advance - the highest month-on-month CPI figure since March 2026 at the onset of the Middle East conflict.
Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) month-on-month: 0.2%
If so, 0.2% would be slower than September's 0.3% core CPI month-on-month figure.
IMPORTANT: Year-on-year CPI figures will not be released this week.
The absence of the year-on-year CPI prints is because the Oct 2025 CPI numbers were not released due to the US government shutdown back then.
As we do every Monday, we distill the week's major events into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity this week (November 9th - 13th, 2026):
Gold to re-test 50-day SMA resistance?
Amid the carnage across AI stocks and cryptos, XAUUSD+ quietly rose over 5% last week to register its best weekly gain in 11 weeks (since mid-Aug).
Still, the precious metal remains about 5.7% lower on a year-to-date basis going into this week - set for its biggest annual decline in over a decade.
NOTE: Gold fell 10.4% back in 2015, and has only registered 3 annual declines since then.
This Tuesday's US inflation report could determine whether gold can extend its recent rebound, or worsen its year-to-date declines.
Furthermore, a chorus of scheduled Fed speakers this week could also shift market expectations for a Fed rate hike in December, swaying gold prices in tandem.
Gold and interest rate expectations tend to move in opposite directions.
When markets believe US interest rates will rise in the near future, bonds become more attractive vs. gold (which pays no interest).
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Bloomberg models forecast a 73% chance that XAUUSD will trade between $3967.50 - $4230.65 this week.
UPSIDE: Gold could re-claim the $4200 psychological level, with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) potentially offering initial resistance, if the US CPI report comes in lower than market expectations, potentially allowing the Fed to back away from another rate hike next month. Gold could also extend its rebound if oil prices keep falling if US-Iran diplomatic talks show meaningful progress, while the scheduled Fed speak also dampen expectations for a Dec rate hike by the FOMC.
UPSIDE: Gold could falter back into sub-$4k levels and test the $3967.50 region for support if the US CPI report comes in higher than market expectations, potentially paving the way for a Fed rate hike in December. Gold could also pare some of its recent rebound if oil prices rebound higher on further escalation in US-Iran geopolitical tensions, while the scheduled Fed speak also raises expectations for a Dec US rate hike.
Bitcoin to rebound off 200-day SMA?
Interestingly, both Bitcoin and Gold have been stuck in their respective downtrends (lower highs and lower lows) in recent months.
However, the fact that Bitcoin sank along with AI stocks on Nov 5th, while gold climbed, shows that the precious metal still retains its time-tested allure as a safe haven while BTC has yet to convincingly showcase such merits.
Still, beyond the prevailing risk appetite over the coming week, Bitcoin remains sensitive to macro factors.
The incoming CPI report may also trigger Bitcoin's next big move.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
At the time of writing, Bitcoin has been testing support around its 200-day simple moving average (SMA)
UPSIDE: Should its 200-day SMA hold as critical support, a restoration of market risk appetite may send Bitcoin back towards re-testing its 50-day SMA for resistance, also around the $82k psychological level.
DOWNSIDE: Should its 200-day SMA fail as critical support, another leg down for risk assets may see BTC testing psychological support around the $70k zone, perhaps spurred on by a hotter-than-expected set of CPI figures that ramp up expectations for another Fed rate hike in December 2026.
Applied Materials (AMAT) to sink towards $300 after "death cross"?
Applied Materials - the biggest US producer of chipmaking machinery - is set to report its latest quarterly earnings after US markets close on Thur, Nov 12th.
In the first half of the year, Applied Materials was among the 10 biggest year-to-date gainers on the S&P 500 index, having climbed as much as 189% (using intraday prices) through end-June.
Since then, AMAT has fallen 55% from its all-time (intraday) high, and is now on the cusp of forming a "death cross".
NOTE: A "death cross" is when a stock's 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day SMA. Such a technical pattern tends to signal further price declines ahead - as was the case for AMAT back in 2022 and 2024.
KEY EARNINGS THEMES
Wafer fab equipment (WFE) outlook
Investors are desperate for clarity on WFE spending in 2027, after the company declined to issue such a forecast at its Investor Day presentation in mid-October.
Any concrete guidance here would be a major positive catalyst.
AI demand vs. China headwinds
Although sales in Taiwan and South Korea are expected to grow, demand on mainland China has yet to stabilize, given its proposed export controls on AI chips and models.
AMAT stock prices may rise if Applied Materials signals stabilizing demand in the world's 2nd biggest economy.
The upcoming earnings announcement could greatly determine how much AMAT can hang on to its 29.5% in year-to-date gains.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
Markets predict that AMAT will move 8.6% up/down after its earnings announcement.
UPSIDE: AMAT may find some relief around $360.82 if its earnings report and outlook signals robust fundamentals for AI-linked companies.
More buy-the-dip action for battered AI stocks may also help AMAT rebound.
DOWNSIDE: AMAT may attempt to find support around the $300 psychological level, if the earnings report and outlook out of Applied Materials fails to assuage investors concerns surrounding the AI trade.
Over the next 12 months, analysts surveyed by Bloomberg predict that Applied Materials' shares could rise 94%.
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.
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