3 Assets to Watch (Oct 26-30): Oil, EURUSD, and NAS100 index



• Key Events: Fed and ECB rate decisions, Israel elections, and US earnings - Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon

• Brent oil may swing on Israel/US election outcomes, Middle East developments (UPSIDE TARGET: $120; DOWNSIDE: 21-day SMA)

• EURUSD to react depending on who has more rate hikes in store - Fed or ECB (UPSIDE TARGET: 1.110; DOWNSIDE: 1.1330)

• NAS100 index awaits earnings out of US$10.5T worth of Big Tech companies (UPSIDE TARGET: 50-daySMA/30k; DOWNSIDE: 28.2k)



The final trading week of October 2026 is set to be action packed!



From the world's most influential central bank, to some of the biggest AI stocks - this week could present massive trading and investing opportunities.

Already, leading up to this eventful week, major assets have seen big moves:

• Brent oil - the global benchmark - breached $118/bbl on Bybit platforms for the first time since early May, trading at a 5-month high, before easing back down to around $115/bbl today (Mon, Oct 26)

• Gold broke below $4,000 for the first time since late July - now trading at a 3-month low - and is now testing that psychologically-important price level for critical support.

• Bitcoin and NAS100 index respectively hit a 1-month low.

READ MORE (published Oct 20th): Oil just hit a 5-month high! What does this mean for gold, stocks, and cryptos?



Key Market Events (Oct 26-30)



More big price swings could be in store for global financial markets this week, featuring these major events:

• Tue, Oct 27th: Israel elections

• Wed, Oct 28th: Federal Reserve a.k.a. Fed rate decision

• Wed, Oct 28th: Earnings - Alphabet and Microsoft

• Thur, Oct 29th: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision

• Thur, Oct 29th: Earnings - Amazon, Intel, and Sandisk

• Fri, Oct 30th: Bank of Japan (BoJ) rate decision

Arguably, this week's market limelight is set to be centered on the incoming AI earnings and the US rate decision, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference.

3 Assets to Watch (Oct 26-30)

As we do every Monday, we distill the week's major events into 3 assets to watch that could present your next trading opportunity:



Brent oil to return to $120?



At the time of writing, Brent oil prices are hovering around the $115/bbl level, having breached $118/bbl last week.

READ MORE (published Oct 20th): Here's why oil surged to a 5-month high.

Trade Brent oil perps now

Oil: Key Events to Watch

• Latest developments in Middle East conflict

• Tue, Oct 27th: Israel elections

• Wed, Oct 28th: Fed rate decision

• Tue, Nov 3rd: US midterm elections

Oil: Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: Brent oil may spike to $120/bbl if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wins the elections, paving the way for a resumption of the war against Iran. A similar narrative may apply should Republicans win the US midterm elections the following week.

• DOWNSIDE: Brent oil may falter to test its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for support once again if Netanyahu loses the election, with markets noting that Gadi Eisenkot (Netanyahu's main election rival) may not be so eager to quickly resume the military campaign against Iran.

Furthermore, the Fed rate decision may trigger more volatility between the Israeli and US elections, amid a still-fluid situation in the Middle East.





EURUSD to post new 1-month low?



This week brings two central bank decisions in less than 24 hours:

• Wed, Oct 28th @ 6:00 PM UTC: Federal Reserve a.k.a. The Fed

• Thur, Oct 29th @ 1:15 PM UTC: European Central Bank (ECB)

To be clear, the Fed and the ECB are both expected to leave their respective interest rates unchanged this week.

However, what they signal about the timing of their next rate hikes could rock the world's most-traded FX pair, EURUSD.

Watch especially Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference @ 6:30PM UTC on Wed, Oct 28th - 30 minutes after the FOMC's interest rate decision and policy statement have been released.



How do rate hike expectations impact FX?

A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of its country's interest rates moving higher, faster than its peers.

Here's what markets are forecasting for these 2 major central banks:

• Fed: 87% chance of a US rate hike in Dec 2026; 68% chance of 3 total rate hikes by Sept 2027

• ECB: 79% chance of an ECB rate hike in Dec 2026; 63% chance of 3 total rate hikes by Sept 2027

With markets expecting the Fed to be more "hawkish" (stronger intent to hike rates) than the ECB, no surprise that EURUSD is down 4.6% so far in 2026.

FX pairs 101

• EURUSD rises when the euro strengthens vs. the US dollar and/or the US dollar weakens vs. the euro

• EURUSD falls when the euro weakens vs. the US dollar and/or the US dollar strengthens vs. the euro

Of late, EURUSD has been resisted (prevented from moving higher) by its 21-day simple moving average (SMA), and has been trading around a 5-month low.

Trade EURUSD perps now

EURUSD: Potential Scenarios

Bloomberg's FX model currently predicts a near-76% chance that EURUSD will trade between 1.1085 - 1.1330 this week.

• UPSIDE: EURUSD may hit 1.1330 if the ECB signals its intent to keep hiking rates into 2027, while Fed Chair Kevin Warsh and his FOMC colleagues appear apprehensive about more policy tightening (rate hikes).

• DOWNSIDE: EURUSD may test 1.1100 for psychological support and hit a new 5-month low if the ECB signals a slower pace for incoming rate hikes, while the Fed appears more aggresive with its intended rate hikes.

EURUSD: Wild Cards

• France risk: A Moody's downgrade of France's sovereign rating - possible as early as this week - would likely add fresh downward pressure on EURUSD.

• Middle East conflict: A ramp-up in hostilities in the region may also drag down EURUSD on risk-off sentiment.

^{NOTE: When market fears and uncertainties are elevated, markets tend to buy up the US dollar, given its historic role as a safe haven asset (helps investors protect their wealth during times of greater fear and uncertainty).}





NAS100 to sink to 3-month low?



This tech-heavy US stock index is bracing for earnings announcements out of 3 massively important tech/AI companies:

• Wed, Oct 28th: Alphabet and Microsoft

• Thur, Oct 29th: Amazon (also, Intel and Sandisk)

Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon have a combined market cap of almost US$ 10.5 trillion!

In other words, the movements of these stocks are big enough to move the entire Nasdaq 100 index.

Trade NAS100 index now

The AI spending debate is the central theme.

The question hanging over this week's earnings: is Big Tech's AI spending creating value - or just burning cash?

Three of the biggest names in tech answer that question this week.

We will share more insights on these massive earnings tomorrow (Tue, Oct 27th) in our Market Pulse reports.



NAS100: Potential Scenarios

• UPSIDE: The NAS100 index could test resistance at its 50-day SMA/30k psychological level if Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon (plus Intel and Sandisk) can soothe AI overspending fears, while the Fed doesn't spook risk-taking activities with an aggressive rate hike outlook.

• DOWNSIDE: The NAS100 index could falter to the 28,200 round number and hit levels not seen since end-July (3 month low) if Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon fail to subdue AI overspending fears, while the Fed further dampens risk appetite by signalling that future US rate hikes may happen at a faster pace.





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