ICYMI: FX Forecasts Respected - GBPUSD, USDJPY, and AUDUSD





Patience is a virtue - in life, and in markets.



We now look at some major FX pairs that have recently respected price levels we'd cited in our daily reports, within varying time periods, ranging between 1 single day to 7 weeks!

In other words, some of these price levels were as good as it got, for the most part, for traders who had placed positions in the right price direction.



1) May 1st: GBPUSD+ hits April 20th upside target 🎯



On April 20th, we wrote:

"UPSIDE: GBPUSD+ may reach the 1.3645 upside target if ... "



• "the 2-week US-Iran ceasefire is extended, while the conflict continues to de-escalate" ✅

UPDATE: In the 2 weeks since the April 20th article was published (Apr 20 - May 1), the US and Iran did pause military attacks, despite exchanging verbal barbs in the interim.



• "better-than-expected UK jobs data' ✅

UPDATE: On April 21st, the UK announced a lower-than-expected February jobless rate of 4.9% (vs. forecasted 5.2%)



• "UK inflation comes in above market forecasts" ✅

UPDATE: On April 22nd, the UK announced a higher-than-expected set of March consumer price indexes (CPI)



Despite the fundamental criteria listed above being fulfilled within 2 days of the April 20th report, GBPUSD+ still needed till May 1st before briefly breaching the 1.3645 upside target.

GBPUSD+ needed an extra upward push from greater risk-on sentiment, as oil prices fell and stocks hit fresh records last Friday (May 1st).

Perhaps more importantly, GBPUSD+ still respected that upside target 2 weeks after we published it, briefly breaching 1.3645 before tumbling back lower.



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See also X post @Bybit_Learn.







2) April 30th - May 4th: USDJPY+ respected March 16th downside target 🎯



This setup took about 7 weeks to play out!

The initial targets were published during the March central bank bonanza - when the Bank of Japan (BoJ) had a rate decision due the same week as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan (BoJ), European Central Bank (ECB), and the Bank of England (BoE) i.e. the world's most influential central banks.

Since then, USDJPY+ had been stuck between the push-and-pull macro forces to stay within a sideways range, while continuously flirting with the psychologically-important 160.00 level.

Ultimately, it took a US$ 34.3 billion currency intervention by the Japanese government last week to send USDJPY+ tumbling down to 156.50!

Since then, between April 30th through May 4th, USDJPY+ has continued respecting that downside target - set nearly 2 months prior.

The major FX pair refused to post a daily closing level below 156.50, using that price level instead as a critical support to stage a nascent rebound for the time being.



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3) May 5th: AUDUSD+ finds support at 21-day SMA, as expected just a day ago



Just yesterday (Monday, May 4th), we wrote:

• "DOWNSIDE: AUDUSD+ may fall to its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) ... if the RBA suggests that rate hikes are on pause after this week" ✅

UPDATE: Earlier today (Tue, May 5), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiked rates - as widely expected.



Notably, RBA Governor Michele Bullock said clearly that the Australian central bank wants to "give ourselves space now to sit and see what happens"

In other words ...

The RBA is ready to press pause on its rate hikes after raising them for a 3rd straight meeting this year!

AUDUSD+ traders duly took note - sending this G10 FX pair tumbling down to its 21-day SMA before prices bounced right off that widely-followed technical indicator.





But wait, there's more!



For the AUDUSD+ setup, we also mentioned keeping an eye on the:

• US April jobs report due Friday, May 8th

And here's the (paraphrased) rest of what we wrote yesterday for the AUDUSD+ downside scenario:

"Should Friday's US jobs report exceed market expectations, AUDUSD+ may even test the 0.7100 level for stronger psychological support."



Then, there's the ongoing Iran war.



With risk aversion already creeping back into markets following yesterday's (Monday, May 4th) spike in Middle East tensions, no surprise that the US dollar rebounded, which in turn helped AUDUSD+ lower.

In what remains a highly-fluid scenario, if the Iran War de-escalates once more, then a weaker-than-expected US jobs report before the weekend may also weaken the US dollar and keep AUDUSD+'s upside scenario in play.

In short, there could be more volatility - and trading opportunities - still ahead for AUDUSD+ for the remainder of the week.

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DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.