Unitree set to IPO tomorrow (Wed, Aug 19). How will it perform? Here's what we've learned from SpaceX, SK Hynix, and CXMT.
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Unitree IPO on Shanghai STAR Market tomorrow (Wed, Aug 19)
Unitree perps have already soared as much as 107% since Aug 3rd listing on Bybit
Unitree's public stocks may more than triple if it catches up with perps pricing
However, perps tend to fall on day 1, while public stocks soar as price discovery aligns
Post-IPO: SpaceX and SK Hynix fell below IPO price before rebounding, but CXMT kept climbing
Remains to be seen if Unitree mirrors CXMT's triple-digit, post-IPO surge - though similarities abound
Unitree is set to make its market debut in China tomorrow (Wed, Aug 19).
This is China's first humanoid robot company - and the hype is real leading up to its US$ 9 billion initial public offering (IPO) on the Shanghai STAR Market at CNY 150.80 (~US$22.35) per share.
To quantify the hype ...
Unitree's perpetuals (UNITREEUSDT) has soared as much as 107% since its August 3rd listing on Bybit.
READ MORE (published Aug 2nd): Unitree IPO - What you need to know
Leading up to this latest in a series of blockbuster IPOs in recent months, the question at the forefront of many traders' minds ...
"Will Unitree pop or sink on day 1?"
Here is what we have learned from some recent blockbuster IPOs, including SpaceX, SK Hynix, and CXMT:
Day 1: Perps tell a different story to public shares
Big name IPOs in recent months have almost always popped on day 1:
SpaceX - the largest IPO in history at $75B - closed +19% higher on June 12, 2026!
SK Hynix's US ADR debut - a $26.5B listing - opened +12.8% on July 10th, 2026!
CXMT - a Chinese STAR Market chip IPO worth US$ 9.8 billion - skyrocketed +466% on its very first day - July 27, 2026!
However, note that the % figures listed above were based off their respective IPO prices (e.g. CXMT closed day one about 466% higher than its IPO prices).
Perps paint us a different story!
SK Hynix fell about 6% intraday on July 10th.
CXMT fell as much as 9% intraday on July 27th.
Why the different reactions between perps and the publicly-listed stocks?
The IPO price for the publicly-traded stocks vs. perps price are 2 very different starting points.
By the time a blockbuster IPO actually lists, the crypto perpetual futures market has already been trading it for weeks - and has already priced in most of the excitement.
So when the stock opens on day 1:
vs. the IPO price → it looks like a massive gain!
NOTE: The IPO price had been set weeks in advance by bankers, and often deliberately conservatively price to ensure the IPO deal gets done.
vs. the perps price → it often falls.
NOTE: The perps price reflects live, real-time market sentiment right up to listing day i.e. it has already absorbed the hype because the perps had already run up to — or even above — where the stock eventually opened.
In other words, on day 1, the publicly-listed stock is not really "popping" from the perps traders' perspective.
Instead, it is just catching up to where perps already were, then overshooting slightly before correcting.
Also, the day 1 drop in perps signals that early buyers took profits immediately, and the price pulled back.
After day 1 "pop", US-listed IPOs drop - but Chinese STAR Market IPOs are different
Over in US listings: SpaceX and SKHynix would peak briefly post-IPO -> fall below their IPO prices -> rebound.
SpaceX perps peaked at $227.85 within 4 days of listing (by June 16th intraday peak)
then fell as much as 54% to $104.59 by Aug 3rd
spent a few weeks below its $135 IPO price — painful for anyone who chased the day 1 high
has since rebounded back above $135.
SK Hynix's ADRs followed the exact same script:
fell below its IPO price just 17 days (on July 27th) after IPO
fell as much as 36% between its July 14th - July 29th intraday peak-to-trough
has since rebounded back above its $149 IPO price.
SOURCE: Bloomberg
At the time of writing (prior to US market open on Tuesday, August 18th):
As for CXMT?
CXMT has never dipped below its IPO price — not once, yet.
Today CXMT shares sit at +586.5% above its IPO price of US$ 1.279 - and it only listed on July 27.
READ MORE: Last week, CXMT overtook Tencent as China's biggest listed company!
The key difference?
Chinese STAR Market rules force IPO prices far below fair value — creating a structural gap that explodes on day 1 and rarely fully closes.
What does all this mean for Unitree's post-IPO performance?
Unitree appears to have the exact same setup as CXMT - plus extra fuel!
Unitree is 5,526x oversubscribed by retail investors, who have only been allocated a portion of 0.02% to 0.05%.
Same exchange (STAR Market) → same pricing rules → same structural day 1 explosion possible
Backed by DeepSeek — the AI breakthrough that shook global markets in early 2026
China's first-ever humanoid robot IPO — a category-defining, once-in-a-generation moment
Every observable data point - oversubscription, exchange mechanics, narrative, sector momentum - mirrors CXMT's pre-listing setup!
The bottom line:
The data does not guarantee a CXMT-style triple-digit surge.
Also, past IPO performance is not a guarantee of future results.
But if you are watching one IPO this week, this is it!
Don't miss out!
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information purposes only and reflects publicly available data and research at the time of writing. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.