Brent breaches $120 briefly - highest since Middle East conflict began! How high can oil prices go?
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Brent has soared to its highest level since the Middle East conflict erupted on Feb 28th.
Prices of the global oil benchmark briefly breached $120/bbl on Thursday, April 30.
Such behaviour demonstrates the psychological and technical power to resist bulls (prevent Brent prices from moving higher), at least for the time being.
What sent Brent to a wartime high?
Axios reported that US President Donald Trump is about to be briefed on new military plans for the Iran war as soon as today (Thursday, April 30).
The Axios news report spooked markets - just the thought of a resumption in military hostilities has dashed market hopes that the worst of the Iran war is behind us.
Also, markets remain fully aware that the Strait of Hormuz remains practically closed, despite the US-Iran ceasefire since April 7th.
Hence, with no credible off-ramp to the Iran war in sight, the diminished prospects that the Strait of Hormuz can be re-opened anytime soon has sent oil prices skyrocketing!
How high can Brent oil go?
Brent oil has already surpassed our recent upside scenarios from the past week and sliced past stated targets:
April 28th: $115/bbl (although the $115 target remains in play for WTI US Crude - USOUSD)
April 23rd: “easily breach $110/bbl again” (Brent below $103.50 then)
March 3rd: “Brent Oil returning to triple-digits for the first time since 2022” (Brent below $83 then)
The breaching of $120/bbl today also vindicates JPMorgan’s forecasts, which we shared nearly 2 months ago on March 3rd.
The surge in oil prices may have more room to run:
March 12th: Could Brent hit a new record high above $147.50 last seen in July 2008? Goldman Sachs thinks it could.
March 12th: Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects Brent to reach $120-$150
March 9th: Bybit Learn shared Bloomberg Intelligence’s forecast for $133/bbl
But wait, there’s more!
Beyond oil markets, there are other major events that could affect FX and US stocks later today (as we had shared since past Monday, April 27):
Thursday, April 30:
@ 11:00 AM UTC: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision
@ 12:15 PM UTC: European Central Bank (ECB) rate decision
After US markets close @ 8:00 PM UTC onwards: Earnings results from Apple
TAP HERE for our Preview of today’s BoE and ECB rate decisions, along with forecasted reactions for EURUSD+, GBPUSD+, EU50, and UK100.
TAP HERE for the forecasted % stock price reactions to their respective earnings, published on Monday, April 27.
DISCLAIMER: This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.