FX-Football trend: 100% success rate from quarterfinals through Spain-Argentina final!

Bybit Learn's FX-Football trend maintained its 100% “success rate”!

🇪🇸 Spain's 1-0 defeat of Argentina 🇦🇷 in the July 19th final meant that …

Every country with a weaker currency has won its knockout match since the quarterfinals!



We had been highlighting this FX-Football trend all throughout the tournament, and noted the steady rise of the trend's “success rate”:

• on June 11th: kicked off this year's tournament by viewing proceedings through the lens of financial markets.

• on June 25th: noted 53% “success rate”, though countries with stronger currencies still dominated their respective groups.

• on July 9th: “success rate” rose to 71.4% in Round of 16 matches

• on July 16th: “success rate” rose to 100% in quarterfinals AND semifinals!



Even leading up to the final, here's a recap of where the Euro stood against the Argentine Peso:

• Euro was weaker by 0.6% against the Argentine Peso so far this year

• Euro was weaker by 2.4% against the US Dollar so far this year

• The Argentine Peso was weaker by 1.7% against the US Dollar so far this year

^{NOTE: Year-to-date performance calculated until July 15th closing price}

And Spain duly delivered through a much-toiled win to keep this FX-Football trend intact right until the very end!



Mere coincidence, not causation

Once again, we must responsibly reiterate that we are not saying in any way that financial markets have predictive powers over football matches.

This series of reports was for info-tainment purposes, offering a different perspective on proceedings at the world's greatest football tournament.



But wait, there's more!

2026 World Cup: by the numbers

Before we finally bid farewell to this global sporting event, here's one last look at the tournament - through a different set of numbers:

• US$ 15 billion: FIFA's expected revenue for 2023-2026 cycle

• US$ 11 billion: FIFA World Cup-related revenue in 2026 (higher than 2022's haul of US$ 7.6 billion in Qatar)

• 6.6 million: number of attendees across the 16 stadiums (excluding Spain-Argentina final attendance) - bigger than combined attendance at 2018 and 2022 World Cups combined.

• Over 15 million: number of people who filled stadiums and fan festival areas

• 5.2 billion: FIFA's estimate for the number of people worldwide (5.2 billion is about 2/3 of the global population people:

• 104 matches over 39 days played by 48 teams (with talks of expanding it to a 64-team tournament)

• US $3,000: price for a section of the pitch which hosted Spain-Argentina final

• 832 new advertising slots, thanks to 2 hydration breaks per match

• US$250,000 - US$ 750,000: price per 30-second ad

• US$ 12 million: how much Cape Verde likely made from this year's tournament

• 2.91 average goals-per-game (higher than 2.69 average in 2022 tournament)

SOURCE: Bloomberg



Still, thanks for indulging us during this journey, as we now settle back in to our regular programming.

Be sure to check in regularly on Bybit Learn's Market Pulse reports - which shares the latest insights and the freshest trading ideas across asset classes.

For starters, here's our latest pick of “3 Assets to Watch” for this week (published Monday, July 20).



PS: Original thread first posted on X @Bybit_Learn.





DISCLAIMER:

This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.