Preview: US jobs report due Friday, April 3. Check out these market forecasts.



First, a quick recap to get you up to speed.

ICYMI: US President Donald Trump's speech overnight - delivered at 9:00 AM EST on Wednesday, April 1 - dashed market hopes for a swift end to the ongoing Middle East conflict:

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): -2.2%, with its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) resistance proving tough to beat once more.

• Gold (XAUUSD+): -3.5%, falling back below its 100-day SMA - a key technical level we'd highlighted since March 23rd.

• Bybit's SP500 - which tracks the benchmark S&P 500: -1.4%

• WTI Crude Oil (Bybit: USOUSD): +6.2%, on the cusp of posting a new 3-week high (since March 9th)

As we wrote in yesterday's report (Wed, April 1) - prior to President Trump's speech with markets eager for a de-escalation in the Iran war ...

"The upward bias for oil prices should remain intact as long as Iran continues to exert a chockhold on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that deprives the world of its much-needed oil supplies."



Trade Brent Crude Oil Button





But the week isn't over yet!

The pivotal US jobs data is due to be released tomorrow (Friday, April 3) @ 12:30PM UTC.

NOTE: The monthly US jobs report is also called the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report, and is typically released on the first Friday of every month.



Why is the US jobs report so important?



1) US consumers drive US economic growth



The US is the biggest economy in the world, and its biggest growth engine = US consumers (people spending money on goods and services).

Hence, more people with more jobs = more income to spend and support US economic growth.

However, the resilience of the US jobs market, and US economic growth in tandem, is being doubted in light of the risks stemming from the Iran war.



2) Fed's mandate for "maximum employment"



The Federal Reserve, a.k.a. the Fed, is the world's most influential central bank and has a dual mandate (economic goals to achieve):

• "Maximum employment" (jobs growth) 

• "Stable prices" (inflation)

Typically, the Fed either:

• lowers its benchmark interest rates to boost jobs growth and support inflation, OR

• raises its benchmark interest rates to dampen jobs growth so it doesn't lead to a spike in inflation

However, the Fed's job could become trickier moving forward because of the Iran war.

• Rising oil prices could push US inflation higher (which would typically warrant higher Fed rates), BUT

• The conflict also risks hurting US jobs growth (which would typically warrant lower Fed rates).

In short, it remains to be seen how resilient/hurt the US jobs market has been, and whether the Fed has to rush in and quickly cut US interest rates while tolerating higher US inflation.

Currently, markets expect Fed rates to remain stuck i.e. unchanged through the end of 2026.



NFP forecasts by economists



Here's what economists forecast for this top-tier economic data release:

• Headline NFP number: 65,000 new jobs added in February

If so, that would be a turnaround from the 92,000 jobs LOST from the month prior: January 2026.



• Unemployment rate: 4.4%

If so, 4.4% would match January's jobless rate



Potential Near-Term Scenarios



• A US jobs market that's not deteriorating rapidly, or even faring better-than-expected, may boost major assets like US stock indices (SP500, NAS100, DJ30). Risk assets such as cryptos may also take delight in such a report.



• On the other hand, US dollar-denominated assets may move higher (e.g. precious metals like Gold (XAUUSDT perps) and Silver (XAGUSDT perps), along with G10 FX pairs such as EURUSD+, GBPUSD+, AUDUSD+ etc.) on the weaker US dollar if a much weaker-than-expected US jobs report restores bets for Fed rate cuts in 2026.



How are major assets expected to react to the incoming CPI data?



These % forecasts are for the 6 hours after the CPI release @ 12:30 PM UTC Fri, April 3rd:

• Bitcoin (BTC):  as much as 1.6% up / 2.5% down

• Ethereum (ETH): as much as 1.3% up / 3.6% down

• Ripple (XRP): as much as 2% up / 3% down

• Solana (SOL): as much as 2% up / 3.8% down

• Gold (XAUUSDT perps): as much as 1% up / 1.2% down

• Silver (XAGUSDT perps): as much as 1.8% up / 2% down

• Crude Oil (CLUSDT perps): as much as 2% up / 2% down

• EURUSD+: as much as 0.6% up / 0.5% down

• GBPUSD+: as much as 0.4% up / 0.5% down

• USDJPY+: as much as 0.7% up / 0.7% down

• S&P 500 (SP500): as much as 0.7% up / 1.7% down

• Nasdaq 100 (NAS100): as much as 1% up / 1.8% down

• Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJ30): as much as 0.7% up / 1.7% down



NOTE: Some markets will be closed Friday, April 3. No trading for Gold (XAUUSD+), Silver (XAGUSD), Brent (UKOUSD) and WTI Crude (USOUSD) CFDs.

Instead, conventional TradFi precious metals and oil instruments have been replaced with their respective Bybit perpetuals, available for 24/7 trading, as listed in the bullet points above.