Iran War - a month on: How did Oil, Gold, USD, BTC etc. perform in March 2026?
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Today (Wed, April 1st), markets are keenly waiting for President Trump's speech due 9:00PM Washington time Wednesday (1:00AM UTC on Thursday, April 2).
The US President may reveal how much longer the US military could remain actively involved in the Iran war.
Recently, President Trump suggested that the US could end its war with Iran within 2-3 weeks.
As the world awaits what could be the next major development in this ongoing Middle East conflict, it's timely to assess how major asset classes have fared since this war began a month ago.
NOTE: The % figures below measure the respective performances of these assets for all of March 2026:
starting from the closing price on February 27th (final trading day of February 2026; also the day before the first US-Israeli strikes against Iran)
through to the closing price on March 31st
1) Brent Oil (UKOUSD): +63.3%
The global oil benchmark posted its largest ever monthly increase on record in March 2026!
Although markets are easing Brent prices lower at the time of writing, the reality is that the Strait of Hormuz remains practically shut today.
The upward bias for oil prices should remain intact as long as Iran continues to exert a chockhold on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz that deprives the world of its much-needed oil supplies.
READ MORE:
published March 26: Brent oil set for biggest monthly gain since 1990!
published March 12: Brent hits $100 again! Will Middle East crisis send Brent to new record high?
published March 9: Oil hits $100! Why is the world freaking out?
published March 1: Middle East Watch - 3 Assets in Focus (Brent oil cited as a key asset to watch since onset of Iran war)
2) Gold (XAUUSD+): -11.6%
In March 2026, gold saw its biggest monthly drop since October 2008 - with such declines not seen since the global financial crisis.
Despite being a safe haven asset, gold prices crumbled in the face of the stronger US dollar, as markets erased expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026.
NOTE #1: A currency tends to strengthen at the thought of interest rates in its country staying/moving higher.
NOTE #2: Gold has an inverse relationship with the US dollar, i.e. when the US dollar strengthens, gold weakens, and vice versa.
Also, because gold is a highly liquid asset (can be easily sold for cash), investors likely sold off the precious metal to meet margin calls elsewhere, amid heightened volatility across global financial markets.
On March 23rd, gold even briefly dipped into a "bear market" - falling by more than 20% (using intraday prices) from its all-time high.
However, at the time of writing prior to President Trump's highly-anticipated speech, gold is rebounding - on course for a 4th straight day of gains - amid hopes that the Middle East conflict may soon de-escalate.
READ MORE:
published March 20: Here's why Gold and Silver sank to 6-week low, despite Middle East conflict.
published March 23: 3 Assets to Watch (including gold)
3) US dollar: +2.4%
The US dollar a.k.a. the "greenback" a.k.a. the "buck" was clearly the preferred "safe haven" since the Iran war broke out.
In March 2026, the US dollar strengthened against all of its G10 and Asian peers.
NOTE: The US dollar's performance is widely measured by the benchmark dollar index, DXY. Specifically, the DXY index measures USD vs a basket of major currencies:
Euro (EURUSD+): 57.6% weightage in DXY; fell 2.2% vs. USD in March 2026
Japanese Yen (USDJPY+): 13.6% weightage in DXY; fell 1.7% vs. USD in March 2026
British Pound (GBPUSD+): 11.9% weightage in DXY; fell 1.9% vs. USD in March 2026
Canadian Dollar (UDSCAD+): 9.1% weightage in DXY; fell 2% vs. USD in March 2026
Swedish Krona (USDSEK+): 4.2% weightage in DXY; fell 4.6% vs. USD in March 2026
Swiss Franc (USDCHF+): 3.6% weightage in DXY; fell 3.8% vs. USD in March 2026
FUN FACT: In March 2026, the Kazakhstan Tenge (+4.5%) was the best-performing currency in the world (tracked by Bloomberg) against the US dollar, followed by the Madagascar Ariary (+4.4%), and the Colombian Peso (+2.1%). Such gains were notable in light of the broad US dollar strength amid the Middle East conflict.
READ MORE:
published March 4th: Middle East Watch: US dollar vs. Bitcoin - which is the ultimate safe haven?
4) Bitcoin: +4%
Despite this period of heightened market fears and uncertainties, Bitcoin prices climbed amidst the Iran war, far outperforming other risk assets such as equities/stocks.
While it's still far too early to declare Bitcoin as a safe haven, such price resilience is indeed remarkable, with this Middle East conflict offering cryptos its latest chance to showcase its merits as an alternative safe haven asset.
Notably, Bitcoin's 2.2% climb last month (Feb 28-Mar 31, closing prices) was its first monthly advance since September 2025, ending a 5-month losing streak!
READ MORE:
published March 27: How has Bitcoin fared over past US-Iran conflicts?
published March 17: Bitcoin hits 6-week high! Time to get pumped?
published March 13: Besides Oil, which assets are "winning" in this Middle East conflict?
ICYMI: Other big movers in March 2026
LyondellBasell Industries (LYB) soared 40% in March 2026 - making it the best-performing stock on the benchmark S&P 500 index (Bybit: SP500) so far since the Middle East conflict began.
NAS100 index fell into "technical correction" (when an asset falls 10% or more from its recent high) between March 26-31. By yesterday (Tue, Mar 31), this tech-heavy stock index had fallen as much as 13.26% below its all-time high (using intraday prices) posted on October 30th, 2025, before US stock markets staged a major rebound on hopes that the Middle East conflict is entering its endgame.
Tron (TRXUSDT) climbed 11% in March 2026, making it the only token among the 10-biggest cryptos by market cap to have a year-to-date advance as of March 31st.
