'Strait' Talk: Markets begin to hope for Middle East conflict de-escalation





Cautious optimism is being felt across major assets that the ongoing Middle East conflict could ease:

• Brent Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD): -3.8%, holding around psychologically-important $100/bbl level

• Gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+): +1.6%, rising towards its 100-day simple moving average (SMA) - a key level we highlighted since Monday, March 23

• SP500: +0.5%, holding around 6,600 psychological level

• EURUSD+: world's most-traded FX pair - little changed around 1.1600 psychological level

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): +1.3%, holding above the $71k big, round number

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Iran War: Latest developments drive de-escalation hopes



• US drafted 15-point plan to end Iran conflict; this plan comes amidst US President Donald Trump's ordered five-day pause on strikes

• Axios reports high-level talks could start as soon as tomorrow (Thursday, March 26)

• Iran says it's allowing "non-hostile" ships to pass Strait of Hormuz



Middle East Conflict: What's Next?



The setups for our "3 Assets to Watch" (selected since Monday, March 23) remain intact.

Markets are tepidly pricing in de-escalation but remain cautious, given that the situation remains highly fluid and uncertain.

Ultimately, markets want to see material positive developments that meaningfully ease geopolitical tensions, and perhaps most importantly, progress towards restoring tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.